Expect Lansdowne to Be a 1% Tax, and Here's the Math

City staff and OSEG officials, I invite you to debate me on these numbers.

The City of Ottawa has avoided any real discussion of the financials behind Lansdowne. We’re told that the project will cost $419 million, of which taxpayers will only have to pay $5 million a year.

That is almost certainly not true.

Lansdowne makes its calculations based on cost and revenue projections out to 2066. Any calculation that projects out 4 decades is a guess at best. And furthermore, the City’s Lansdowne business plan is full of holes and wishful thinking.

I’ve prepared a 10-minute video that provides the full breakdown of Lansdowne financing below. I’ve also prepared a 3-minute version — even further below — that summarizes the key points.

The full analysis

If you want to get to the bottom of Lansdowne finances, then take 10 minutes to watch the explainer video below.

The 3 minute version

For all the movers and shakers who can only spare 3 minutes, here is a summary version just for you.

Bottom line: assume a 1% property tax

The Lansdowne partnership has a bad record of putting forward projections that simply do not come true.

Lansdowne 1.0 promised taxpayers almost $100 million in profits. That amounted to nothing.

Lansdowne 2.0 promises taxpayers over $350 million in profits. Do we expect those to come through?

Unlikely. And even if they do, taxpayers will still be on the hook for far more than the City is promising.

For taxpayers, the safest assumption is that Lansdowne will eat up the first 1% of your property tax increase.

If this project goes ahead, thank Mayor Sutcliffe for his 1% Lansdowne tax.