We Need a Candidate Who Can Win the Mayor's Race

To those who worry about vote splitting, ask first if Jeff has a credible pathway to victory.

Yesterday, I put out an invitation to find 1,000 concerned citizens who are ready to launch a movement that can win back our city.

If 1,000 people are ready to work together for change, then I’m ready to be their candidate and launch a mayoral campaign.

1,000 of us working together can win the next election.

Will you be one of The Thousand? If so, stand up and be counted.

The Thousand are people who want better than what we are getting in this city — and are prepared to do something about it.

The initial response was great, and thanks to those of you who signed up right away. We’re ahead of what I thought we’d achieve on the first day.

Vote splitting concerns

There were some people who asked that I not step forward in order to prevent splitting the vote with Jeff Leiper.

Let me address those vote splitting concerns and why, as much as I like Jeff, I don’t see how he can win in October.

No obvious path

Jeff and I have known each other for a long time — back to our university days. Anyone who has met Jeff knows that he’s a great guy, and truly committed to serving the people of Ottawa.

For the October election, the only question that matters — for all of us who care about the future of this city — is whether Jeff Leiper can win.

I cannot see a credible path to victory for Jeff.

1. Electoral math doesn’t work

Jeff is a seen as a progressive candidate in the NDP mould. Whether this is completely accurate or not doesn’t matter — that’s how he’s perceived. We’ve seen candidates for mayor with this profile before.

• In 2022, Catherine McKenney got 38% of the vote. Mark Sutcliffe won with 51% of the vote. Bob Chiarelli came in third with 5%.

• In 2018, Clive Doucet got 22% of the vote. Jim Watson won with 71%.

• In 2006, Alex Munter got 36% of the vote. Larry O’Brien won with 47%. Bob Chiarelli came in third with 16%.

Catherine was a very popular candidate. Polling results for Catherine started in the mid-30s and stayed there throughout the campaign. The 38% Catherine achieved is likely the ceiling for an NDP-aligned progressive.

Jeff’s path to victory assumes that he could match Catherine’s popularity AND that the new Conservative-aligned candidate, Alex Lawson, will take 15% of the vote.

Neither of these assumptions are credible.

Catherine was a unique candidate at a unique time in our city’s history. Jeff is no Catherine. Expect Jeff’s performance to be closer to Doucet’s 22% than McKenney’s 38%.

Alex Lawson can count on some support from the right, but most voters will quickly see how unsuited he is for the mayor’s job. If Lawson shows strength in early polls, I’d expect him to end up like Chiarelli in 2022, who started the race with double digit support but collapsed to 5% on voting day. People will see him as little more than a spoiler.

There is certainly disappointment among previous Sutcliffe voters with his performance, but the math for Jeff simply doesn’t work.

2. Early polling is disappointing

Early findings confirms this. An Abacus Data poll, commissioned by the Ottawa Real Estate Board, was presented at a breakfast meeting a few weeks ago. (This data has not been published but multiple attendees photographed and shared the graphs that were presented.)

Take any poll this far in advance with a big grain of salt, but the numbers do tell an important story. This poll was done late in 2025, five to six months after Jeff Leiper and Mark Sutcliffe both announced, and before Lawson or I had entered the fray.

About half of respondents are decided, which I would suggest interpreting at this stage as having a preference. A lot will happen over the next 9 months.

55% said they intend to vote for Sutcliffe. Only 20% said they intend to vote for Leiper. Those numbers have to be pretty disappointing for the Leiper camp after half a year as a candidate.

But what should be of concern to both Jeff and Mark is that 25% of respondents want someone else. Neither of the two declared candidates generated much excitement or enthusiasm.

Disappointed now or disappointed later

To the Jeff supporters, you can be disappointed now or disappointed later.

You can be upset with me for saying the quiet part out loud — that he has no obvious pathway to victory.

This race is too important to put everything behind one candidate drifting towards a second, or even third place finish.

Expand the options

That’s why I entered the race. We need another option.

If it were Sutcliffe v Leiper v Lawson, many people would tune out and disengage. Those who want change would be resigned to another 4 years of the status quo.

I’ve entered the race because we need a new hope. We need a bottom-up people’s movement to save our city. Not a top-down political operation that uses the same tired playbook.

There is a critical mass of people who want change, and are prepared to work together to achieve it. If 1,000 people join me, we can start a movement to win.

Unite behind the best candidate

All of those who want change in this city can agree that we don’t want a divided opposition. At some point in the race, we need to unite behind a single candidate. The best candidate.

Let’s hear what candidates are actually running on, and see how the public responds.

Those of us who are currently engaged in city issues represents a tiny fraction of the voting public. We’re like social media — not representative of the broader voting population.

If anyone can convince me Jeff has a pathway to victory — something credible and more than just vibes — I’m all ears.

There’s a large block of people who have already signed up to be part of The Thousand. They’re not noisy or making a show on social media; they’re pragmatic. They’ve looked at the landscape, evaluated the options and made their decision on the most likely pathway to success.

Will you join them and be one of The Thousand?

Addendum: a reader pointed out that David Colletto published the Abacus Data noted above on his X account.