Thanks for starting this important conversation. We don’t think about this enough!
Implicit in your analysis I think is that, alongside the shift to driverless vehicles we we also see a shift from personal ownership to more common use of shared vehicles as a service to get around. Given cost considerations, I think that’s likely. Driverless vehicles will also blur the lines between car-sharing and ride-sharing or taxi services.
We were in San Francisco a few weeks ago and used Waymo to go to and from a restaurant. We also used it two years ago in Phoenix, but I think the technology has improved since. I agree it's promising but I don't have a sense of costs relative to conventional taxis.
Three points:
1. I don't understand why self-driving cars would lead to more congestion. That implies that people would take additional trips or shift from other modes such as transit, which woukd require a cost much lower than current taxis or a service that is significantly more convenient
2. As an older person, I look forward to a service that would enable me to retain more mobility and autonomy
3. As a cyclist and pedestrian, I agree we need to be concerned about vulnerable road users, but I suspect that self-driving cars will reach the point where they are much better at detecting and avoiding cyclists and pedestrians than many human drivers
Re 1, Driverless cars will mean more empty cars roaming the streets waiting for their next passenger, or driving to/from a nearby parking spot. It’s a bit like Uber, where cities have more traffic because we have “empty” Ubers on the road waiting for their next ride.
On 3, I suspect the technology is already safer than the standard driver. But as this technology is rolled out, it will — and should — be held to a higher standard.
Thanks for starting this important conversation. We don’t think about this enough!
Implicit in your analysis I think is that, alongside the shift to driverless vehicles we we also see a shift from personal ownership to more common use of shared vehicles as a service to get around. Given cost considerations, I think that’s likely. Driverless vehicles will also blur the lines between car-sharing and ride-sharing or taxi services.
We were in San Francisco a few weeks ago and used Waymo to go to and from a restaurant. We also used it two years ago in Phoenix, but I think the technology has improved since. I agree it's promising but I don't have a sense of costs relative to conventional taxis.
Three points:
1. I don't understand why self-driving cars would lead to more congestion. That implies that people would take additional trips or shift from other modes such as transit, which woukd require a cost much lower than current taxis or a service that is significantly more convenient
2. As an older person, I look forward to a service that would enable me to retain more mobility and autonomy
3. As a cyclist and pedestrian, I agree we need to be concerned about vulnerable road users, but I suspect that self-driving cars will reach the point where they are much better at detecting and avoiding cyclists and pedestrians than many human drivers
Re 1, Driverless cars will mean more empty cars roaming the streets waiting for their next passenger, or driving to/from a nearby parking spot. It’s a bit like Uber, where cities have more traffic because we have “empty” Ubers on the road waiting for their next ride.
On 3, I suspect the technology is already safer than the standard driver. But as this technology is rolled out, it will — and should — be held to a higher standard.